EPS Growth & The Share Buyback Conundrum
With the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 signed into law, the 1% excise tax coupled with weaker CEO confidence in the economic outlook may cause a slowdown in buybacks in the quarters to come. What does this mean in terms of EPS growth for U.S. corporations and the broader S&P 500?
Recession Risks Part 2 – It’s all About the Corporate Margin Cycle
Picking up where we left off in our last webinar, we expand the macroeconomic analysis with new data points and include PPI, commodity price changes and illustrate the combined effects on corporate profit margins. How does all this impact the corporate margin cycle? We provide the analysis for the broader S&P 500 as well as the Energy, Health Care, Information Technology, Utilities and Materials sectors.
Recession Risks – Credit Markets at Odds with Equity Markets
Despite the recent rally in equities off the June 2022 lows, 10-year – 2-year treasury yield spreads are pricing the strongest forewarning of a recession since the dotcom implosion. What are the analytical issues and how do they move through the business cycle and turn into a recessionary threat?
2022 Real Estate Market Strategy Playbook
We believe the current market dynamics are setting in motion the potential for a slow-rolling real estate correction that may take years to play out and will feature key differences compared to the Financial Crisis era correction.
Stable Earnings™ Portfolios – Berkshire Hathaway Drawdown and Long-term Performance Study
Consolidated earnings stability at the portfolio level has historically provided the Stable Earnings™ Core equity portfolio relative levels of downside protection against loss of capital during periods of economic recession and unforeseen, black swan events.
60/40 Asset Allocation Return Profile from a Stable EarningsTM Equity Portfolio?
Year-to-date 2022, against the backdrop of surging inflation, bonds measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, have fallen -11.47%. Long Term U.S. Treasuries, measured by the S&P 30-Year U.S. Treasuries Bond Futures Index, have fallen -15.82% over the same period. Both are among the worst bond returns in U.S. history. The cornerstone of the […]
June 2022 Market Strategy and Importance of Stable EarningsTM Discipline in Uncertain Times
Major U.S. stock indices ended lower on Friday, June 10th following the U.S. Labor Department Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation gauge reaching a new 40-year high in May. A second bad inflation report was released on Friday, June 10th when the University of Michigan survey of consumers’ long-term inflation expectations increased to the highest level […]